Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris a Dead Heat in Three Swing States: New Poll

Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are splitting voters almost evenly in the coveted swing states of Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, according to a new CNN poll.
In Georgia and Nevada, 48 percent support Harris to 47 percent for Trump; in Pennsylvania, the candidates are tied at 47 percent. SSRS conducted the CNN poll, which also included Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona.
Vice President Harris appears to have a leg up on former President Trump among probable voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, whereas Trump leads in Arizona. In these six states, an average of 15 percent of likely voters confess that they have not solidified their voting decision, indicating a considerable fraction of voters who may alter their stance on the election as campaign interest surges and campaign activities, particularly in these states, reach a climax in the final nine weeks before Election Day.
Paul Bagala, an ex-adviser to former President Bill Clinton, said Wednesday morning on CNN that the two candidates are now looking to raise their appeal to voters who are just starting to tune in to the heated presidential race.
“This is why we call them battleground states. Candidates now have to reach voters who have not been paying attention,” Begala said. “It’s really important to ‘put the jam on the lower shelf’ where the voters can reach it. Don’t assume that these voters know everything.”
Political commentator S. E. Cupp told CNN that the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will be “crucial” for undecided voters who are “not into either of these candidates.”
“It’s not that they don’t know anything,” Cupp said. “They’re waiting to see if one of the two candidates will do or say something that really appeals to them.”
Cupp called the Sept. 10 ABC News debate the “deciding moment” for these voters “to see exactly what these two candidates will lay out in terms of policies.”
When reached for comment, Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told Newsweek in an email Wednesday morning, “Kamala Harris is the weakest and most unpopular vice president in history and she is wholly responsible for the policy failures of the past four years. Our focus every day is on ensuring the American people know Kamala’s dangerously liberal record and see her for who she is – a phony, radical, San Francisco liberal who would further spiral our once great nation into a sanctuary for illegal immigrants and a nightmare for law-abiding Americans.”
Newsweek emailed the Harris campaign for comment Wednesday morning.
Both campaigns are spending millions of dollars on fundraising, hundreds of volunteers are being hired, and both candidates are traveling the length and width of the country in an effort to pick up votes, especially in the battleground states.
Trump is expected to air a pre-recorded townhall speech for voters in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, today after visiting Johnstown on Wednesday—one of several visits he has made to the state this month after he was the target of an attempted assassination in the state at a rally on July 13 in Butler.
His visit followed an appearance by Harris and President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania on Labor Day.
To ensure that Pennsylvania delivers Harris a victory, Robert Speel, Associate Professor of Political Science at Penn State University, told Newsweek that she needs to avoid making the same mistakes as, Hillary Clinton, who lost the state to Trump in 2016.
“One key goal of the Harris campaign if she wants to win Pennsylvania is to not repeat the mistakes that the Hillary Clinton campaign made in 2016 when she lost Pennsylvania,” he said.
“While the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro areas are the two largest in the state by far, they only contain about half of the state’s population. In 2016, Clinton herself campaigned almost exclusively in the two big metro areas and ignored much of the rest of the state, for example never visiting Erie County where I live. Trump did visit Erie and many of Pennsylvania’s smaller cities during the 2016 campaign, and Biden visited Erie in 2020 before winning the county,” Speel added.
According to CNN’s polling data, Georgia, with 16 electoral votes, and Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, are still highly competitive, with narrow overall spreads and a significant percentage of likely voters – 12% in Georgia and 16% in Pennsylvania – who are either undecided or open to changing their vote.
Black voters form an imperative demographic in both states, notably in Georgia.
CNN’s poll reveals Harris possesses an 85% favorability rating among Black likely voters in Georgia and 84% in Pennsylvania. However, Black registered voters in both states convey less motivation to vote in this election compared to White voters. In Georgia, 61% of Black registered voters express a high motivation to vote, compared to 70% of White voters, while in Pennsylvania, 56% of Black voters versus 72% of White voters say they’re highly motivated to vote.
Presidential preference in both states is markedly divided by gender, according to the CNN poll, with Harris enjoying a significant lead among likely female voters in both states, while Trump holds a comparable advantage among likely male voters. Harris’s lead marginally expands among suburban women in both states, outstripping Trump by 16 points in Georgia and 18 points in Pennsylvania.
Likely voters below 35 years of age in both states majorly support Harris, leading 59% to 36% in Pennsylvania, and 54% to 41% in Georgia.
White likely voters without college degrees largely favor Trump in both states, especially in Georgia, where nearly 70% support him. Nonetheless, White likely voters with four-year college degrees diverge in their preferences across the two states. In Pennsylvania, they predominantly lean toward Harris, 59% to 37%, whereas, in Georgia, they are firmly in Trump’s corner, 65% to 32%.
In Nevada, which has six electoral college votes, a significant majority of Latino likely voters, 57% to 37%, lean toward Harris, while in Arizona, the division is more balanced, with 49% for Harris and 43% for Trump. White voters in both states favor Trump by notable margins (56% to 39% in Arizona, 55% to 41% in Nevada).
In Nevada, Harris is favored by White voters with college degrees, 56% to 41%, while in Arizona, this group is evenly divided at 47% for each candidate.
Follow Newsweek’s live blog for updates.
This is a developing news story and will be updated with more information.
Update, 09/04/2024, 11:41 a.m.: This article has been updated with more information.